Viewing archive of Tuesday, 13 March 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Mar 13 2202 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 072 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 946 (N05W88) decayed into a plage region without spots. The visible solar disk is now spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active with minor storming observed at mid and high latitudes early on 13 March due to a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed has been steadily increasing since 11 March and is now approximately 700 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (14 - 16 March), with possible active periods on 14 March due to the coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Mar 071
  Predicted   14 Mar-16 Mar  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        13 Mar 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar  007/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Mar  015/023
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar  010/015-006/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%

All times in UTC

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