Viewing archive of Saturday, 17 March 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Mar 17 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 076 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours and the solar disk continues to be spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed declined gradually during the past 24 hours from initial values around 630 km/s to values around 520 km/s at forecast issue time. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was high during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (18-20 March).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Mar 069
  Predicted   18 Mar-20 Mar  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        17 Mar 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar  011/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Mar  007/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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