Viewing archive of Tuesday, 17 April 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Apr 17 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Apr 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 952 (S08W73) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled for the next three days (18-20 April). Isolated active periods are expected on 19-20 April, with a chance for isolated minor storm conditions at high latitudes on 20 April, due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Apr to 20 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Apr 069
  Predicted   18 Apr-20 Apr  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        17 Apr 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Apr  000/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Apr  005/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Apr-20 Apr  005/005-008/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Apr to 20 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%25%
Minor storm05%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%30%
Minor storm05%15%20%
Major-severe storm01%05%10%

All times in UTC

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