Viewing archive of Saturday, 28 April 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Apr 28 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 118 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Apr 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 953 (S10E36) has not changed much in area and has only managed to produce several B-class flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a chance for an M-class flare from Region 953.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm conditions as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream continues to be geoeffective. Solar wind speeds at ACE are enhanced around 640 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm conditions on 29 April. Mostly unsettled conditions are expected on 30 April. Conditions are expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels by 01 May.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Apr to 01 May
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Apr 085
  Predicted   29 Apr-01 May  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        28 Apr 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Apr  010/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Apr  020/030
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Apr-01 May  015/015-010/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Apr to 01 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%15%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm25%15%10%
Major-severe storm15%05%05%

All times in UTC

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