Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 May 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 May 15 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 956
(N02E48) continues to show rapid development in sunspot area and
magnetic complexity. This region produced a C1/Sf flare at 15/1537Z
and is magnetically classified as a Dso beta-gamma sunspot group.
Region 955 (S07W58) underwent slight decay over the past 24 hours.
No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Further development of Region 956 could
possibly lead to isolated M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels with isolated unsettled
conditions possible throughout the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 May 077 Predicted 16 May-18 May 080/082/083 90 Day Mean 15 May 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May 001/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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