Viewing archive of Saturday, 26 May 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 May 26 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 146 Issued at 2200Z on 26 May 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. The visible disk is spotless. A slow moving CME was observed in LASCO imagery off of the west limb and accompanied by a B1 flare at 26/1644Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. The greater than 2MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on 27 May and quiet to unsettled on 28 May. Conditions are expected to abate to quiet on 29 May as the recurrent coronal hole high speed stream rotates past its geoeffective position. The CME observed today from the west limb is not expected to be geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 27 May to 29 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 May 068
  Predicted   27 May-29 May  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        26 May 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 May  009/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 May  012/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May  012/015-006/010-003/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 May to 29 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%25%
Minor storm30%20%10%
Major-severe storm15%10%01%

All times in UTC

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