Viewing archive of Friday, 29 June 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jun 29 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 962 (S10E55) produced a C1 flare at 29/2013Z. Region 961 (S13E23) remains relatively unchanged since yesterday.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a chance for C-class activity from either Region 961 or 962.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed increased to approximately 500 km/s as a recurrent coronal hole rotated into a geoeffective position.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (30 June - 02 July). Isolated active periods are possible on 30 June and 01 July due to the coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jun to 02 Jul
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Jun 075
  Predicted   30 Jun-02 Jul  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        29 Jun 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Jun  006/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul  008/010-006/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun to 02 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%30%20%
Minor storm20%15%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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