Viewing archive of Sunday, 5 August 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Aug 05 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field should be
initially quiet for the first day (6 August). However, an increase
in activity levels to unsettled to active is expected mid-to-late
day in response to a favorably positioned coronal hole. Unsettled to
active levels should predominate on the second day (7 August) with a
chance for isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. Activity
should decrease to generally unsettled levels by the third day (8
August).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Aug to 08 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Aug 069 Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 05 Aug 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug 000/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 007/015-015/020-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug to 08 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 45% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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