Viewing archive of Sunday, 5 August 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Aug 05 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field should be initially quiet for the first day (6 August). However, an increase in activity levels to unsettled to active is expected mid-to-late day in response to a favorably positioned coronal hole. Unsettled to active levels should predominate on the second day (7 August) with a chance for isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. Activity should decrease to generally unsettled levels by the third day (8 August).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Aug to 08 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Aug 069
  Predicted   06 Aug-08 Aug  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        05 Aug 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug  000/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Aug  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug  007/015-015/020-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug to 08 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%45%20%
Minor storm10%20%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%30%25%
Minor storm15%25%15%
Major-severe storm05%15%10%

All times in UTC

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