Viewing archive of Saturday, 18 August 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Aug 18 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity continues at very low levels. A new region, rotating into view near S05 on the east limb, produced occasional B-class flares. The remainder of the disk is spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Early indications are that the region rotating into view on the SE limb will have C-class flare potential.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed declined to near 380 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Enhanced solar wind flow from a coronal hole may produce occasional unsettled periods over the next few days.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Aug 068
  Predicted   19 Aug-21 Aug  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        18 Aug 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug  002/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Aug  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug  008/012-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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