Viewing archive of Wednesday, 29 August 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Aug 29 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is forecast to be quiet 30 August. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on 31 August and create quiet to unsettled conditions with the possibility for isolated active periods. Geomagnetic activity should increase on 01 September to unsettled to active conditions with the possibility for isolated periods of minor storming.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Aug to 01 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Aug 070
  Predicted   30 Aug-01 Sep  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        29 Aug 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug  009/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Aug  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep  002/005-008/015-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug to 01 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%30%40%
Minor storm05%15%25%
Major-severe storm01%05%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%35%45%
Minor storm10%20%30%
Major-severe storm01%10%15%

All times in UTC

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