Viewing archive of Monday, 3 September 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Sep 03 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Only one low-level
B-class flare was observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled. A single
period of active conditions was observed at the Boulder magnetometer
between 03/1200-1500Z. Real-time solar wind speed at ACE remains
elevated at approximately 645 km/sec at forecast issue time due to
the lingering effects of the coronal hole high speed stream. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 04 August. Quiet conditions
are expected on 05 August. Expect quiet to active conditions to
return on 06 August, with isolated minor storm periods possible at
high latitudes, as a recurrent coronal hole moves into a
geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Sep 068 Predicted 04 Sep-06 Sep 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 03 Sep 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep 017/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 005/005-005/005-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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