Viewing archive of Wednesday, 26 September 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Sep 26 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. The visible solar
disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled 27 September. Conditions for 28 -
29 September are expected to range from unsettled to active as a
coronal hole high speed stream rotates into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Sep to 29 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Sep 070 Predicted 27 Sep-29 Sep 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 26 Sep 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep 006/008-012/015-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep to 29 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 45% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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