Viewing archive of Thursday, 20 December 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Dec 20 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Dec 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains
spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels due to a
coronal hole high speed stream. The solar wind velocity observed at
ACE reached a maximum of around 745 km/s at 20/1733Z. As of
forecast issue time, the solar wind remains elevated with values
around 670-700 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained
at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled for the next three
days (21-23 December). Active conditions are possible on 21
December, with isolated minor storm period possible at high
latitudes, due to the continued influence of the high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Dec 073 Predicted 21 Dec-23 Dec 072/071/070 90 Day Mean 20 Dec 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Dec 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec 010/015-008/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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