Viewing archive of Thursday, 20 December 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Dec 20 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Dec 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels due to a coronal hole high speed stream. The solar wind velocity observed at ACE reached a maximum of around 745 km/s at 20/1733Z. As of forecast issue time, the solar wind remains elevated with values around 670-700 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled for the next three days (21-23 December). Active conditions are possible on 21 December, with isolated minor storm period possible at high latitudes, due to the continued influence of the high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Dec 073
  Predicted   21 Dec-23 Dec  072/071/070
  90 Day Mean        20 Dec 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec  007/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Dec  010/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec  010/015-008/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%15%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%30%20%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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