Viewing archive of Saturday, 5 January 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Jan 05 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 005 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours. Region 981 (N29E14) is currently the only spotted region on the disk but is quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was initially quiet but after 0600Z became predominantly unsettled to active with isolated minor storming in some locations. Real-time solar wind observations showed a marked increase in velocity, magnetic field and temperature at about 04/2330Z, and then again at 05/0600Z. The signatures are most consistent with a high-speed stream from a coronal hole, although there may have been some complicating influence from the interaction of recent transient activity with the stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled to active for the next two days (06-07 January) due to ongoing persistence from the high speed stream. Activity is expected to subside somewhat on the third day (08 January) as the stream should be declining at that time.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Jan 080
  Predicted   06 Jan-08 Jan  080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        05 Jan 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Jan  015/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan  012/015-012/015-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active45%45%15%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%25%
Minor storm25%25%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

All times in UTC

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