Viewing archive of Sunday, 9 December 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Dec 09 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 978 (S09E26) produced a B9.4 flare during this perioed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to range from very low to low. C-class activity is likely from region 978.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field activity level will increase from quiet to unsettled early on day 2 as a recurrent coronal hole becomes geoeffective. There is a slight chance of isolated active periods at high latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Dec 089
  Predicted   10 Dec-12 Dec  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        09 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec  001/000
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Dec  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec  005/005-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm05%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%25%25%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 04:05 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Yellowknife, NT

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Iqaluit, NU, Saskatoon, SK, Whitehorse, YT
Nuuk
Juneau, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Winnipeg, MB
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (680.5 km/sec.)
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-53nT)

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