Viewing archive of Monday, 12 November 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Nov 12 2202 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained
spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to begin the period at quiet levels. During the latter
half of 13 November, conditions are expected to increase to
unsettled to occasionally active levels, with isolated minor storm
periods possible at high latitudes. The elevated conditions are due
to a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream and are expected to
persist through the end of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Nov 070 Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 069/069/069 90 Day Mean 12 Nov 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 008/010-015/015-015/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 45% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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