Viewing archive of Monday, 10 December 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Dec 10 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 978 (S08E14) grew in complexity over the past day and is currently a beta-gamma magnetic type.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to range from very low to low. The trend in Region 978 suggest a good chance for C-class activity..
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speeds at ACE began to increase, approaching 440 km/s by 1800Z. Temperature and density trends also signal the approach of a coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to become unsettled early in the period as the recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective. Occasional active periods may occur, particularly at high latitudes. Extrapolation from STEREO Behind suggests a peak speed near 600 km/s by 11 November at 1000Z. The disturbed conditions are exptected to diminish by 13 December.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Dec to 13 Dec
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Dec 087
  Predicted   11 Dec-13 Dec  085/085/080
  90 Day Mean        10 Dec 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec  001/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Dec  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec  008/012-008/010-007/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec to 13 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm15%15%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%15%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm06%06%06%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Fairbanks, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Gillam, MB, Saskatoon, SK, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NT
Anchorage, AK, Juneau, AK
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (694.1 km/sec.)
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-56nT)

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