Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 December 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Dec 11 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Today's activity consisted of a few, low level B-class flares. Region 978 (S07E01) is the only sunspot region on the disk and is a 240 millionths Eai beta-gamma group. The group has been relatively stable during the past 24 hours. There appears to be a new region rotating around east limb near N28.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a fair chance for an isolated C-class event sometime during the next three days (12-14 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled although there was an active period from 10/2100Z-11/0000Z. Solar wind observations from ACE show the onset of a co-rotating interaction region late yesterday, followed by the onset of a high speed stream around 11/0000Z. Peak solar wind speeds were around 650 km/s. Nonetheless the solar wind magnetic field has been relatively weak since 11/0130Z. The solar wind speed is currently declining slowly with values around 550 km/s at forecast issue time.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled with a chance for an isolated active period for 12 December. Conditions should be predominantly quiet for 13-14 December.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Dec 093
  Predicted   12 Dec-14 Dec  095/095/095
  90 Day Mean        11 Dec 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec  005/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Dec  012/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec  010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%15%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%15%15%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%

All times in UTC

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