Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 April 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Apr 19 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 110 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was very low. New Region 991 (S09E29)
was numbered today and has a Bxo-beta configuration spot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low. There is a slight chance of an isolated C-class event
from Region 991.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day one (20 April). A recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream begins to become geoeffective on day
two (21 April) with unsettled conditions expected. Unsettled to
active levels, with a chance for minor to major storms at high
latitudes, are anticipated by day three (22 April).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Apr 071 Predicted 20 Apr-22 Apr 075/075/080 90 Day Mean 19 Apr 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Apr 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Apr 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr 005/005-008/012-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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