Viewing archive of Monday, 28 April 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Apr 28 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Apr 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods for
the next three days. An increase is expected late on day one (29
April) or early on day two (30 April) in response to a glancing blow
from the CME that was observed on 26 April.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Apr to 01 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Apr 069 Predicted 29 Apr-01 May 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 28 Apr 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Apr 007/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Apr 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Apr-01 May 008/008-010/012-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Apr to 01 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 45% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Whitehorse, YTAnchorage, AK, Fairbanks, AK, Juneau, AK
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