Viewing archive of Sunday, 10 August 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Aug 10 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk remains spotless. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions. Observations measured at the ACE spacecraft show a continued influence of the recurrent coronal hole high speed solar wind stream. Solar wind speed has averaged around 630 km/s with Bz fluctuations from +4 nT to -7 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions for day one (11 August) of the forecast. Predominately quiet levels are expected for days two and three (12-13 August) as the high speed stream becomes less geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Aug 066
  Predicted   11 Aug-13 Aug  066/066/066
  90 Day Mean        10 Aug 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug  016/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Aug  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug  007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%05%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 04:05 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Yellowknife, NT

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Iqaluit, NU, Saskatoon, SK, Whitehorse, YT
Nuuk
Juneau, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Winnipeg, MB
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (680.5 km/sec.)
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-53nT)

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