Viewing archive of Saturday, 9 August 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Aug 09 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk
remains spotless. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions. As the
recurrent coronal hole high speed wind stream approaches, the solar
wind data as measured at the ACE spacecraft indicated the onset of a
co-rotating interaction region around 08/2300Z. The velocity,
density, and temperature began to rise, the Bt averaged around +20
nT and the Bz fluctuated between +18 nT to -12 nT. Solar wind
speeds continue to slowly rise and are averaging around 620 km/s at
the time of this posting.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately unsettled with isolated periods of
active conditions possible for day one (10 August). Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on day two (11 August), with mostly
quiet conditions expected for day three (12 August) as the effects
of the coronal hole decrease.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Aug 066 Predicted 10 Aug-12 Aug 066/066/066 90 Day Mean 09 Aug 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 010/010-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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