Viewing archive of Friday, 5 September 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Sep 05 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours and the solar disk continues to be spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet during the past 24
hours, with the exception of an unsettled period from 0300-0600Z.
Solar wind observations at ACE show a generally declining trend in
the solar wind velocity with values around 500 km/s at the end of
the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next two days (06-07
September). Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels for the
third day (08 September).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Sep to 08 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Sep 065 Predicted 06 Sep-08 Sep 066/066/066 90 Day Mean 05 Sep 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep 017/033 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 007/010-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep to 08 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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