Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 December 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Dec 03 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. The solar disk continues to be spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (04-06 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.
Conditions were initially completely undisturbed, but around 0600Z a
gradual increase in solar wind speed and magnetic field intensity
began. In response geomagnetic activity increased slightly to quiet
to unsettled levels through the remainder of the day. The solar wind
signatures appear to be consistent with the onset of a high speed
solar wind stream from a coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled for the next three days
(04-06 December) with a chance for isolated active periods. The
enhanced activity is expected due to the high speed solar wind
stream.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Dec 069 Predicted 04 Dec-06 Dec 069/069/069 90 Day Mean 03 Dec 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec 000/000 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 010/010-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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