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Viewing archive of Saturday, 4 July 2009

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Jul 04 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. New Region 1024 (S27E02) emerged early in the period and produced numerous B-class events during the past 24 hours. The largest of these was a B8 at 0437Z. The group grew rapidly and is currently a D type sunspot region with an area of about 140 millionths. The magnetic analysis showed a beta group with a single, East-West oriented polarity inversion line. The frequency and intensity of flare activity from the region appeared to be decreasing slightly during the last four hours of the period. The remainder of the solar disk was quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly very low, but there is a chance for an isolated C-class flare during the next three days (5-7 July) from Region 1024, especially if it continues to grow.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (5-7 July).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jul to 07 Jul
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Jul 071
  Predicted   05 Jul-07 Jul  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        04 Jul 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul  003/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Jul  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul to 07 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 00:51 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Iqaluit, NU
Nuuk
Reykjavik

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Trondheim
Sundsvall

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Thunder Bay, ON
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (559.8 km/sec.)
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (11.14nT), the direction is moderately South (-10.66nT).
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-68nT)

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