Viewing archive of Friday, 31 July 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Jul 31 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours. The solar disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind
observations from the ACE spacecraft indicted the presence of a
coronal hole high speed stream. Velocities increased from around
340 km/s to 420 km/s, with +/- 5nT fluctuations in the IMF Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for
isolated active conditions for day one (01 August). Predominantly
quiet conditions are expected for days two and three (02-03 August).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jul 069 Predicted 01 Aug-03 Aug 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 31 Jul 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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