Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 August 2009

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Aug 11 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the past 24 hours. The visible disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (12-14 August).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Aug to 14 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Aug 067
  Predicted   12 Aug-14 Aug  067/067/067
  90 Day Mean        11 Aug 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Aug  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug to 14 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm02%02%02%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 04:05 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Yellowknife, NT

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Iqaluit, NU, Saskatoon, SK
Nuuk
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (695.7 km/sec.)
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-59nT)

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