Viewing archive of Monday, 7 September 2009

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Sep 07 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. The visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (8-10 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet with isolated unsettled periods on day one and day two (8-9 September). The increased activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. On day three (10 September), the geomagnetic field will return to quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Sep to 10 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Sep 069
  Predicted   08 Sep-10 Sep  068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        07 Sep 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Sep  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep  005/008-007/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep to 10 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Kuopio, Sodankylä
Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Tampere
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
C8.08

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