Viewing archive of Sunday, 11 October 2009

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Oct 11 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. A geomagnetic sudden impulse occurred at 11/0042Z (09 nT, as measured by the Boulder USGS magnetometer). ACE solar wind observations indicated a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream commenced early in the period. Solar wind velocities gradually increased during the period (peak 463 km/sec at 11/1901Z). A period of mostly southward Bz was observed during 11/0430 - 0800Z (minimum -10 nT at 11/0636Z).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels through the period (12 - 14 October) with a chance for isolated unsettled conditions as the recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream persists.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Oct 070
  Predicted   12 Oct-14 Oct  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        11 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct  000/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Oct  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct  007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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