Viewing archive of Monday, 12 October 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Oct 12 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No significant flare
activity occurred. The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The recurrent coronal
hole high-speed stream that commenced yesterday began to gradually
subside early in the period. Velocities gradually decreased from 435
to 350 km/sec during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels during days 1 - 2 (13 - 14 October).
Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on day
3 (15 October) as an equatorward extension of the northern crown
coronal hole begins to influence the field.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Oct 070 Predicted 13 Oct-15 Oct 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 12 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 005/005-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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