Viewing archive of Sunday, 18 October 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Oct 18 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was very low. A southern plage region
(S28W14) produced a two-ribbon flare around 17/1900Z associated with
a minor x-ray enhancement and an EIT wave. LASCO images showed a
faint, slow-moving (around 230 km/sec), Earth-directed partial-halo
CME was also associated with the flare.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels through the period (19 - 21 October).
No significant field effects are expected from the CME mentioned
above.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Oct to 21 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Oct 070 Predicted 19 Oct-21 Oct 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 18 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct 000/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct to 21 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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