Viewing archive of Friday, 15 January 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jan 15 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 015 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1040 (N29W41) produced two long duration flares, a
B8.1 flare 14/2139Z and a C1.3 flare at 15/0841Z. Region 1040 has
remained stable and is classified as a Eki-beta with 16 spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low to low levels for the next 24 hours. B-class flares and
isolated C-class flares are expected. There is a slight chance for
isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet levels for day one (16 January). On day
two (17 January), quiet to unsettled levels are expected due to the
arrival of a coronal hole high-speed stream. On day three (18
January), quiet levels are expected to return as the effects
subside.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jan 085 Predicted 16 Jan-18 Jan 085/084/082 90 Day Mean 15 Jan 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 005/005-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 20% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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