Viewing archive of Friday, 11 June 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jun 11 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. Several B-class events were produced by new Region 1081 (N22W43), which was numbered early in the period today and has a beta magnetic classification.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for a C-class event for the next three days (12-14 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet levels for the next three days (12-14 June).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jun to 14 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Jun 075
  Predicted   12 Jun-14 Jun  075/075/073
  90 Day Mean        11 Jun 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Jun  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun to 14 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 04:05 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Yellowknife, NT
Fairbanks, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Iqaluit, NU, Saskatoon, SK, Whitehorse, YT
Anchorage, AK, Juneau, AK
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (678.5 km/sec.)
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-57nT)

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