Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 May 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 May 15 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred. The
visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low during the period (16 - 18 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels throughout the period.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels during day 1 (16 May) with a
chance for unsettled levels due to possible coronal hole effects.
Field activity is expected to be at quiet levels during days 2 - 3
(17 - 18 May).
III. Event Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 May 070 Predicted 16 May-18 May 070/072/072 90 Day Mean 15 May 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May 001/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May 007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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