Viewing archive of Monday, 26 July 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jul 26 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity remained very low. Region 1089 (S24W21)
produced occasional B-class flares as it continued to gradually
decay. Region 1090 (N22E29) and newly numbered Region 1091 (N12W73)
were both simple, single-spot A-type groups.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period. However, there is a slight chance for an
isolated C-class flare from Region 1089.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. Despite the quiet
conditions, Earth remained within a recurrent coronal hole
high-speed wind stream. ACE solar wind readings indicated velocities
varied from 396 to 459 km/s during the period with no discernible
trend.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to quiet to active levels with a slight chance
for a minor storm on day 1 (27 July) as the current coronal hole
high-speed stream intensifies. Activity is expected to decrease to
quiet to unsettled levels during days 2 - 3 (28 - 29 July) as the
high-speed stream gradually subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jul to 29 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jul 084 Predicted 27 Jul-29 Jul 084/084/084 90 Day Mean 26 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul 005/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul 012/015-008/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul to 29 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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