Viewing archive of Friday, 17 September 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Sep 17 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity ranged from very low to low. Region 1108 (S28E59) produced the largest event of the period, a C1/Sf at 17/0122Z. Additionally, Region 1108 and Region 1106 (S20W08) produced several B-class events, along with numerous low frequency radio activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance of moderate activity from Region 1108.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period observed at 17/0600Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet for the next three days (18 - 20 September).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Sep to 20 Sep
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Sep 082
  Predicted   18 Sep-20 Sep  085/086/086
  90 Day Mean        17 Sep 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Sep  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep to 20 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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