Viewing archive of Sunday, 26 September 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Sep 26 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1109 (N21E14)
produced several B-class flares during the period and has grown in
both areal coverage and spot count. The region has maintained its
E-type sunspot classification and is a beta magnetic configuration.
New Region 1110 (N19W07) was numbered today and is magnetically
classified as an alpha group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 1109 is likely to produce C-class flares with a slight chance
for a M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet. Unsettled levels were
observed at mid-latitudes during the period between 26/1200-1500Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet levels with isolated unsettled
periods for the next three days (27-29 September) due to the
continued influence of a high speed wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Sep to 29 Sep
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Sep 084 Predicted 27 Sep-29 Sep 084/084/084 90 Day Mean 26 Sep 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep 005/005-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep to 29 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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