Viewing archive of Friday, 1 October 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Oct 01 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1110 (N20W71)
produced a long duration, B5/Sf event at 01/1001Z. Region 1110 has
decreased in areal coverage and extent and is now an A-type group.
Region 1109 (N21W51) has shown little change during the past 24
hours and remains a D-type group with a beta magnetic configuration.
Region 1111 (N20E30) has increased in extent and is now a B-type
group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a chance for a C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (02-04
October).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Oct to 04 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Oct 087 Predicted 02 Oct-04 Oct 087/084/081 90 Day Mean 01 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct 002/002 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct to 04 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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