Viewing archive of Tuesday, 5 October 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Oct 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Regions 1109 (N21W106)
and 1111 (N24W18) produced isolated low-level B-class flares. The
visible disk was spotless. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The ACE
spacecraft indicated a solar sector boundary crossing early in the
reporting period. Solar wind speeds have shown an increase to
around 340 km/s with IMF Bz fluctuations of +6/-6 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one (06 October)
with mostly quiet conditions expected for days two and three (07-08
October).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Oct 075 Predicted 06 Oct-08 Oct 075/075/078 90 Day Mean 05 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct 007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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