Viewing archive of Friday, 22 October 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Oct 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Regions 1113 (N16W40),
1115 (S30W22), and 1117 (N23E36) were stable and quiet. A CME was
observed off the Northwest quadrant on LASCO C3 Coronagraph
beginning around 22/0100Z. This event is likely associated with a
disappearing filament at N19W07 at 21/1506Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is forecast to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class flare during the next 3 days
(23-25 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated periods of
unsettled conditions between 22/0600-0900Z and 22/1800-2100Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be mostly unsettled to active on day 1 (23 October) due
to coronal hole effects in progress. Unsettled to active conditions
with a chance for minor storming are expected on days 2 and 3 (24-25
October) from the affects of a second favorably positioned coronal
hole.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Oct 082 Predicted 23 Oct-25 Oct 082/082/082 90 Day Mean 22 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct 001/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 010/012-015/018-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 60% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 60% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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