Viewing archive of Friday, 22 October 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Oct 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Regions 1113 (N16W40), 1115 (S30W22), and 1117 (N23E36) were stable and quiet. A CME was observed off the Northwest quadrant on LASCO C3 Coronagraph beginning around 22/0100Z. This event is likely associated with a disappearing filament at N19W07 at 21/1506Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is forecast to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare during the next 3 days (23-25 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated periods of unsettled conditions between 22/0600-0900Z and 22/1800-2100Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is forecast to be mostly unsettled to active on day 1 (23 October) due to coronal hole effects in progress. Unsettled to active conditions with a chance for minor storming are expected on days 2 and 3 (24-25 October) from the affects of a second favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Oct 082
  Predicted   23 Oct-25 Oct  082/082/082
  90 Day Mean        22 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct  001/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Oct  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct  010/012-015/018-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%60%50%
Minor storm15%25%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%60%50%
Minor storm20%30%20%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%

All times in UTC

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