Viewing archive of Friday, 29 October 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Oct 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 1117 (N20W55) produced occasional B-class flares during the period. The largest of these was a B4 flare at 29/1732Z. Region 1117 showed a decrease in areal coverage and sunspot count. No new regions were numbered during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels, with a slight chance for an M-class event from Region 1117.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the first day (30 October) due to a weak CME observed on 26 October. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels on the second day (31 October). Quiet to active levels are expected on the third day (01 November), with a slight chance for a minor storm period at high latitudes. The increase in activity is expected due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Oct to 01 Nov
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Oct 086
  Predicted   30 Oct-01 Nov  084/084/082
  90 Day Mean        29 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Oct  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov  007/007-005/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct to 01 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%01%25%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%01%30%
Minor storm01%01%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

All times in UTC

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