Viewing archive of Tuesday, 30 November 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Nov 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours. A CME from the NE quadrant was observed in SDO/AIA images at approximately 30/1830 UTC. Further analysis is required to determine if the CME will be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class activity from Region 1130 (N12W27).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for days one and two (01-02 Dec) as the effects from a coronal hole high-speed stream continue to subside. Quiet to unsettled conditions with a slight chance for isolated active periods are expected on day three (03 Dec) due to possible effects from a CME associated with the disappearing filament observed early on 29 November.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Dec to 03 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Nov 086
  Predicted   01 Dec-03 Dec  086/088/090
  90 Day Mean        30 Nov 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Nov  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec  005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec to 03 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%25%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%25%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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