Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 December 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Dec 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours. New Region 1131 (N30E68) was numbered during the period and is an Hsx-Alpha type spot group. Region 1130 (N14W52) remained stable and quiet throughout the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (03-05 December) with a chance for isolated C-class flares from Region 1130.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods during the next three days (03-05 December) due to possible effects from a CME associated with the disappearing filament observed on 29 November. The CME observed near N15E40 on 30 November may also contribute to elevated activity throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Dec to 05 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Dec 087
  Predicted   03 Dec-05 Dec  090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        02 Dec 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec  001/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Dec  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec  010/010-008/008-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec to 05 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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