Viewing archive of Wednesday, 4 May 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 May 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low during the past 24 hours. Region 1204 (N17E13) produced a B9 x-ray event at 04/0144Z. An eruptive filament was observed in the vicinity of Region 1205 (N14E23) at 04/1656Z. The remaining active regions were quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low during days one through three (05-07 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet during the past 24 hours. Observations from the ACE spacecraft indicate a steady decrease in solar wind velocity from 600 km/s to around 425 km/s as the recent coronal hole high speed stream subsided. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet with isolated unsettled periods for days one through three (05-07 May).
III. Event Probabilities 05 May to 07 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 May 107
  Predicted   05 May-07 May  107/110/110
  90 Day Mean        04 May 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 May  008/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 May  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May  005/005-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May to 07 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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