Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 February 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Feb 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. The disk and
limb were quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (17 -
19 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. ACE solar wind
velocities varied between 350 to 400 km/s while the Bz component of
the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly northward to +5 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day one (17 February)
through late on day two (18 February). Late on day two and through
day three (19 February), field activity is expected to increase to
quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active levels, due to
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream effects.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Feb 103 Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 105/105/100 90 Day Mean 16 Feb 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 018/025 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 006/005-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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