Viewing archive of Sunday, 8 July 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jul 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
Solar activity was high. Region 1515 (S17W76) produced
an M6/1n at 08/1632Z along with a 640 sfu Tenflare, Type II (est.
speed 2271 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. An associated CME became
visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 08/1648Z. The majority of the ejecta
appears to be directed southwest but further analysis will be
conducted as imagery becomes available. Region 1520 (S15E42)
continued to grow to 1070 millionths and is considered an Fhc-type
group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. The region produced
an M1/Sf at 08/0953Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a chance for X-class events for the next three days
(09-11 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. The proton event that began at 07/0400Z and peaked at 07/0745
(25 pfu), ended at 07/2110Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was
enhanced but below threshold at the time of this report.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day one (09 July). Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on day two (10 July), with a chance for
isolated active periods due to possible weak effects from the CME
observed on 06 July. A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected
for day three (11 July).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jul to 11 Jul
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 50% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jul 178 Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 165/155/150 90 Day Mean 08 Jul 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 012/010-013/015-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul to 11 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, UtsjokiReykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå
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