Viewing archive of Sunday, 5 August 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Aug 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1532 (S18W64) produced a few nominal C-class x-ray events. No CMEs were observed and no new active regions were numbered during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next 3 days (6-8 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for days 1-2 (6-7 August). Unsettled to active conditions are forecast for day 3 (8 August), due to an anticipated glancing blow from the CME on 4 August.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Aug to 08 Aug
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Aug 134
  Predicted   06 Aug-08 Aug  135/135/130
  90 Day Mean        05 Aug 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Aug  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug  006/005-006/005-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug to 08 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%15%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%25%
Major-severe storm05%05%25%

All times in UTC

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