Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 August 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Aug 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1543 (N22W19) produced the largest event of the period, a C3/Sf flare at 14/0031Z. An Earth-directed, partial-halo CME was subsequently observed in SOHO/LASCO C3 coronagraph imagery beginning at 14/0130Z with an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 436 km/s. An additional Earth-directed, partial halo CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 13/1325Z with an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 606 km/s. This CME was associated with a C2 flare at 13/1240Z with associated Type II (estimated velocity of 736 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps from Region 1543. Region 1543 showed little change and maintained a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. The remaining spotted regions were stable and quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (15 August). Quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for active conditions are expected on Day 2 (16 August) due to effects from the 13 August CME. Unsettled to active levels with a slight chance for minor storm conditions are expected on Day 3 (17 August) due to effects from the 14 August CME.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Aug to 17 Aug
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Aug 106
  Predicted   15 Aug-17 Aug  105/100/100
  90 Day Mean        14 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug  008/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Aug  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug  005/005-007/010-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug to 17 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm15%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%10%15%

All times in UTC

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