Viewing archive of Friday, 31 August 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Aug 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Regions 1560 (N04E09), 1563 (S24E58) and newly numbered 1564 (S13E70) each produced low-level C flares during the period. Region 1564 rotated around the east limb overnight and is considered a Dao-beta spot group. Region 1560 grew in areal coverage and became more magnetically complex with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. A C8 flare associated with a large filament eruption near S06E20 occurred at 31/2043Z associated with Type II (estimated speed 515 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. A CME first became visible on SDO/AIA 304 imagery at approximately 1945Z. Further evaluation will be conducted as SOHO LASCO imagery becomes available.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for moderate activity throughout the forecast period (01-03 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet for the next three days (01-03 September).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Sep to 03 Sep
Class M40%40%40%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Aug 131
  Predicted   01 Sep-03 Sep  130/130/130
  90 Day Mean        31 Aug 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Aug  002/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep  006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep to 03 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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