Viewing archive of Monday, 29 October 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Oct 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. The largest and only event of the period was a B6 flare at 29/0302Z from Region 1596 (N05W79). Regions 1601 (S10E11) and 1602 (S17E65) were numbered today. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected during the reporting period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day 1 (30 October). Quiet conditions are expected again on day 2 (31 October) until the arrival of the CMEs from 27/28 October, when there is a chance for active conditions late in the period. Active conditions are again likely with a chance for minor storm conditions on day 3 (01 November).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Oct to 01 Nov
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Oct 108
  Predicted   30 Oct-01 Nov  110/110/110
  90 Day Mean        29 Oct 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Oct  003/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov  006/005-010/012-016/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct to 01 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%25%45%
Minor storm01%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm10%20%30%
Major-severe storm05%35%60%

All times in UTC

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